In the Pipeline
Research currently in preparation at the Consiliences Institute. Bulletins under editorial review. Longer papers in active drafting.
This page lists research that is currently in preparation or under editorial review. Bulletins are free when published. Longer papers are distributed to subscribers.
Dates are targets, not commitments. Publication happens when the quality gate passes — not before.
Bulletins — Under Review
Short-form research notes. Free to all readers on publication.
Spectral Hierarchy of Schumpeterian Cycles in US Financial Stress Domain: macroeconomics, business cycles | Confidence: Preliminary | Status: editorial review
Analysis of five independent US financial stress indicators — BAA10Y, NFCI, STLFSI4, high-yield spreads, VIX — using Lomb-Scargle spectral methods. The question: do Juglar, Kitchin, and Kuznets cycles leave distinguishable power signatures in financial stress data, and which dominates?
Spectral Analysis of US Housing Starts and the 7-Year Juglar Cycle Domain: macroeconomics, real estate | Confidence: Preliminary | Status: editorial review
804 monthly observations of US housing starts from FRED. Spectral analysis testing for dominant cycle periodicity. The Juglar hypothesis (6–10 year construction cycles) against the Kuznets (15–25 year) and Kitchin (3–5 year) alternatives.
Speculative Positioning and Momentum Persistence in EUR/USD Domain: finance, currencies | Confidence: Confirmed with caveats | Status: editorial review
CFTC Commitments of Traders data, EUR/USD futures. Directional momentum effect when net speculative positioning reaches extreme long levels. 15 trigger events over 23 years. Limitations and multi-currency consilience test included.
Papers — In Preparation
Longer-form research. Distributed to subscribers. Papers listed here are in active drafting or editorial review; titles and details are withheld until publication or subscription access.
Forthcoming paper — Pharmacology / Regulatory science Examining gaps in the regulatory framework governing a class of combination therapeutic products. Draft exists; under editorial review.
Forthcoming paper — Economics / Governance Structural indicators and their relationship to governance stress in democratic institutions. Draft exists; under editorial review.
Forthcoming paper — Economics / Finance Multi-signal assessment of a long-wave structural position. Contains content relevant to capital allocation. Restricted to subscribers; not previewed here.
Forthcoming paper — Climate / Economics / Geophysics Convergence of three independent structural chains with relevance to a specific monitoring window. Under research. No further detail until draft complete.
Published bulletins appear on the Bulletins page. Published papers appear on the Papers page.