Observatory live · 1687 signals · 54 consilience · 110 confirmed · 291 killed Register interest · Newsletter
Long-cycle structural research
The Consiliences Institute

Unity of knowledge in an age of fragmentation

Methodology

On Revising Our Own Findings: What the April Retest Battery Revealed

· methodology, long-wave economics, cycle analysis, epistemology · Confidence: confirmed

In April we applied a stricter validation battery to the Observatory's long-wave and cycle-period findings. Several previously published claims did not survive. This paper documents the methodology of the retest and the discipline of retracting one's own work in public.

The Observatory: A Week One Retrospective

· methodology, observatory · Confidence: confirmed w/ caveats

251 validated signals, 118 confirmed, 65 killed. What we found, what we killed, and why the kills matter more.